A new study from the Center for America Progress estimates that 970,000 fewer Pennsylvanians will have health insurance if the GOP health care plan is adopted by Congress. The study also provides detailed estimates for how many fewer people will be covered by Congressional district for each kind of health insurance (traditional Medicaid, Medicaid expansion, marketplace, and employer-based insurance.)
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The CAP estimates are broadly similar to those we at PBPC have put forward. However, we believe that the CAP study underestimates the number of Pennsylvanians who will lose insurance under the Medicaid expansion by 2026. The CBO estimates that only 5% of Americans will still have insurance under the Medicaid Expansion by 2026. That estimate, applied to Pennsylvania, would mean that only 35,000 people will remain on the Medicaid Expansion by 2026 in our state, while the new CAP study assumes that 450,000 will still have insurance under the program. CAP’s conclusion rests on the assumption that Pennsylvania will pick up some part of the $4-5 billion in costs of the Medicaid Expansion. Given the difficult budget situation Pennsyvlania already faces and the political makeup of the General Assembly, we believe that this is extremely unlikely. Thus, we expect that 555,750 Pennsylvanians will lose health insurance under the Medicaid Expansion program by 2026 which means that the statewide total will be 1.3 million.